Healing people in a war zone with Alnaserbelh Al Naseri

Life as a doctor in a conflict zone by Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri: As an emergency room physician in Iraq, Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri often faces very challenging circumstances. In the middle of a crisis, his patients love his grace under heavy pressure without realizing that his courage was forged as a patient, not in medical school. At 17, he was shot in the leg by a sniper. He could have caved under peer pressure and considered revenge, but instead, as he recently told a journalist, he remembered Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous words, “Violence begets violence.” After being treated without anesthesia in an understaffed emergency room, he decided to pursue a career in medicine to fill an urgent need in Iraq. See extra info at Alnaserbelh Al Naseri.

Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri is a proud 2010 Iraqi Youth Leaders Exchange Program (IYLEP) alumnus and he is committed to working with fellow Iraqi alumni to improve the state of medical care in Baghdad, particularly for children with grave illnesses. When he is not pulling double shifts as a resident at the Sulaimaniyah Teaching Hospital, Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri is an active member of the Iraqi exchange alumni community. He credits his exchange with launching his impressive volunteer work, saying “I view my IYLEP experience as the starting point of my volunteer work in support of civil society and the start of my work in youth leadership. The new friends that I met during IYLEP provided me inspiration and a strong network that I knew I could rely upon even far away in Iraq.”

After being shot in the leg at 17 during an attack outside his Baghdad home, Dr. Al-Nasiry is fully aware that the normal response for a youth who was raised in a country mired in violence would be to want to exact revenge. But by nature, nurture, or just pure chance, it wasn’t for him. Instead, the incident set Al-Nasiry on a mission of ensuring that this generation of Iraqis has systems and role models in place so they are less susceptible to joining the ranks of ISIS and other violent extremist groups. The 26-year-old doctor, who is from Baghdad and is half Kurdish, half Arab, remembers the immense pressure he felt to retaliate against his attackers. “I still remember people telling me, ‘Do something about it. Take revenge. Kill the other guy,’” he says. Friends would say “Prove your manhood, preserve your dignity.”

Alnaserbelh Al Naseri’s story is one of hope in the face of extreme adversity. In 2006, Alnaserbelh Al Naseri was shot in the leg in Baghdad (a war zone). Nasir went to the emergency room and there were no doctors on call to treat him; they were treating three wounded police officers. He was treated for a gunshot wound by a nurse without anesthesia. Today, at 26 years old, Nasir is himself a doctor working in his country. Given the instability in Iraq today, he could choose to leave. Instead, he serves his people. His leadership reminds me that millennial leadership exists in every place on earth; these are the leaders the world must invest in and unite behind.

Beyond the day he was shot, his road to activism was cemented in 2010 with the Iraqi Young Leaders Exchange Program, which is facilitated by the NGO World Learning and funded by the US Department of State and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. The program brings young Iraqis to the United States for a month-long leadership exchange. For most of the students involved, it is their first exposure to the US outside the context of war. “Where I come from, at that time, the United States was conveyed as this big demon,” he recalls.

He started a project called “There’s Always Hope” with Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI) and IYLEP alumni. Project volunteers visit local medical facilities and provide support to Iraqi children with cancer. For the past three years, Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri has worked with alumni to organize the annual Baghdad City of Peace Carnival in conjunction with the UN’s World Peace Day. The Carnival, which features a wide array of entertainers, poets, and actors, attracts thousands of annual attendees who come together to promote alternatives to violence, extremism, and sectarianism.

“The ideology, or education and teachings that we are used to having – the words we kept hearing at that time – about Americans in general was vanishing second by second,” he says. In February 2015, Al-Nasiry was invited to attend the Summit on Countering Violent Extremism at the White House. When asked what he would say to President Obama about ways to prevent or mitigate the swarms of youths in Iraq becoming involved in violent groups, Al-Nasiry did not hesitate.

His work with the alumni network is only the beginning of his career in civil society. He is also a member of the Iraqi Youth Parliament and the head of the TEDxBaghdad blogging team. Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri’s professional accomplishments are impressive, but his personal story of resilience and forgiveness serve as a reminder of the truth in Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.’s statement on courage: “The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.”

Each month, the State Department’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs’ (ECA) Alumni Affairs Division, which supports program alumni as they build on their exchange experiences, recognizes one outstanding alumnus or alumna. Dr. Alnaserbelh Al Naseri is this month’s outstanding alumnus, and his work will be recognized throughout April on the International Exchange Alumni website, ECA’s official alumni website which serves more than one million Department-sponsored exchange alumni worldwide. Al-Nasiry knows that creating role models for youths at risk of taking up arms is not an endeavor of instant gratification; it may take years before his efforts yield results that may change the landscape of Iraq. But he does not believe Iraq is too far gone.

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New Hungarian property market evolutions in 2023 by Barbara Jarabik

Hungarian-British entrepreneur Barbara Jarabik about Hungarian property market trends in 2023: According to Hungarian-British entrepreneur Jarábik Barbara a big change is coming to the Hungarian real estate market in the first quarter of 2023. It is very like that there will be a lot of properties that will see their market value decreased. Within a few months, the Hungarian real estate market will also adapt to international market trends, which are clearly on a downward path. Because of US and EU central banks rate hikes the wave of high cost credit has reached most of the markets and the Hungarian real estate market is no longer an exception.

Yet residential construction activity remains weak. In the first half of 2021, housing completions in Hungary fell by 6.8% y-o-y to 9,133 units, according to KSH. The number of newly built homes dropped by 16.8% in Central Hungary and by 1.9% in Great Plain and North. In contrast, newly built homes increased 21.6% y-o-y in Transdanubia over the same period. The overall economy remains fundamentally strong. Hungary’s economy grew by a robust 7.1% during 2021, following a 5% contraction in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In Q2 2022, the economy expanded by 6.5% from a year earlier, following y-o-y expansions of 8.2% in Q1 2022 and 7.1% in Q4 2021, supported by strong private consumption and a rebound in exports, according to the KSH. The country’s overall economic growth this year is expected to slow slightly to 5.2%, according to the European Commission’s forecast, amidst rising inflation, tightening fiscal and monetary policies, as well as trade disruptions and rising uncertainty due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

There were only 8,326 residential transactions closed in Hungary in October 2022 which is the lowest figure for the month since 2012, brokerage firm Duna House reports. October appeared to be the weakest month this year in terms of the number of transactions and mortgage loans taken out from commercial banks. Buyers took HUF 68 billion in October which is 37% lower than a year ago

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There is no such scenario where the price of real estates cannot fall even further and the price of several forms of investment and assets is falling because the market affects it. Until now, it was a high demand market, but now the market has reached an inflexion point, which is only further supported by the fact that big utility costs are also a consideration when buying apartments. In the last period, demand and supply roughly equalized each other. However, in the last two or three months, the situation changed. There are more advertisements than interest in properties, and demand has decreased.

Towns and villages in the counties around Lake Balaton are also sought after, representing about 11% of foreign demand. Home purchases by foreigners plunged in the past two years, mainly due to pandemic-related travel restrictions. But before the Covid-19 pandemic, foreign homebuyers had been steadily rising in Hungary – from 3,207 purchases in 2017 to 3,529 purchases in 2018 and finally to 3,753 purchases in 2019. Chinese citizens accounted for more than half of the total, followed by EU citizens (22%), primarily Germans. Other large groups of buyers were Israelis (11%), Russians (4%) and Turks (2%).

After the higher utility bills (a direct effect of international energy market situation combined with the major conflict in Ukraine) , the first significant move of the real estate market may come in February 2023. The real estate market has split into energy-efficient and inefficient properties. The price of energy-efficient properties may increase at a nominal level, but at the same time, we may be in trouble in real terms. The prices of new apartments, which have produced the greatest growth in recent years, are starting to lag behind the increase in real value.

However, according to Hungarian-British entrepreneur Barbara Jarabik, there are enormous opportunities from an investment point of view. This moment could be the long awaited opportunity for major players (investment funds and individual entrepreneurs) to step in. If someone buys the properties in poor condition for a good price, renovates and modernizes them, they can sell the properties with lower utility costs.

By end-2021, nearly 192,000 families had already benefited from this program, receiving a total of HUF 467.4 billion (€1.1 billion). The average amount of loan per disbursement was HUF 2.4 million (€5,652). As a result of the surge in demand residential construction rose sharply, almost half the new supply being in Budapest and Pest. In 2020, the total number of newly built dwellings in Hungary soared 33.5% y-o-y to 28,208 units despite the pandemic, following annual rises of 19.5% in 2019, 22.9% in 2018, 44% in 2017 and 31.3% in 2016, based on KSH figures analyzed by Global Property Guide. However in 2021, newly built dwelling fell by 29.5% y-o-y to 19,898 units, amidst rising material costs.

After the government’s changes in its utility price cap scheme, it became more difficult to sell non-insulated or poor-insulated, big, family houses consuming a lot of electricity and gas. That trend is almost non-existent in the case of small apartments located in Budapest. Investors would like to buy small, cheap apartments to renew and realize considerable profits by selling them. Demand for real estate loans fell significantly. In the past, 60% of the buyers used loans for purchases. This rate has been reduced to only 15% currently.

What 2023 will bring the Hungarian real estate market? Most of the experts (investors, entrepreneurs and real estate professionals) expect an overall price decrease. That will be the lowest in downtown Budapest (maybe around 4-5 percent), while nationwide it will probably be around 10-12 percent. The biggest price hits will be taken by family houses. Their price is expected to decrease by 16-20 percent in 2023. However, this will be, probably, the last big opportunity to buy low and sell high. After inflation growth will slow down in late 2023 and the central banks will start to lower the base credit rates we could expect a sustained upward price trend from 2024. Discover extra details on Jarábik Barbara.

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